2025 Oscar Predictions Amid Controversies

Entertainment Weekly's 2025 Oscar predictions highlight potential winners in various categories amidst significant controversies. Karla Sofía Gascón's social media scandal has affected the "Emilia Pérez" campaign, potentially shifting voter attention to other contenders. Demi Moore and Fernanda Torres emerge as frontrunners for Best Actress, with Torres possibly benefiting from Gascón's controversy. "The Brutalist" and "A Complete Unknown" are strong contenders for Best Picture, especially as "Emilia Pérez" faces backlash. Sean Baker and Brady Corbet are key contenders for Best Director. Adrien Brody is favored for Best Actor, while Kieran Culkin is expected to win Best Supporting Actor. Zoe Saldaña and Monica Barbaro are predicted to win Best Supporting Actress and Best Adapted Screenplay goes to "A Complete Unknown". Other categories, including Best Original Screenplay, Best Animated Feature, and Best International Feature, are also discussed, forecasting wins for "Anora", "The Wild Robot", and "I'm Still Here" respectively. The Oscars, hosted by Conan O'Brien, will air on March 2.

 

Best Picture

Anora
WINNER PREDICTION: The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I'm Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked

At least in the contemporary era, scoring the most Oscar nominations doesn't always equate to a Best Picture win. Sometimes it means something (Everything Everywhere All at Once, Oppenheimer), but most times it doesn't (Mank, The Power of the Dog, Joker, The Favourite, etc.) When Emilia Pérez's 13 nods made it the year's most-nominated title, its path to victory became slightly clearer amid a wild year of big contenders. That stopped following Gascón's social media controversy; and while maybe not all Oscar voters will stray from Emilia Pérez's corner, enough of them will likely move away from giving Gascón half an excuse to take the stage on Oscars night.

That leaves us with a couple of different scenarios to choose from. First, momentum might've stayed with The Brutalist all along; the lengthy drama landed big wins at the Globes (including Best Motion Picture — Drama, Best Actor — Drama for Adrien Brody, and Best Director for Brady Corbet) at a key point during nominations voting.

Next, given that most in the Oscar prognostication community severely overestimated the Academy's love for Conclave (it shockingly missed out on a Best Director nod for Edward Berger), it's also likely that many overlooked A Complete Unknown rising in its place. Given that film's healthy performance on nominations morning (naturally, it snuck in for Best Director after James Mangold wowed with a DGA nod, and Monica Barbaro edged out the likes of Jamie Lee Curtis and Selena Gomez in Supporting Actress), we could be looking at the passion vote prize-winner of the year.

Last, all of the aforementioned "prestige" titles could split votes, and a more generally pleasing consensus pick like Wicked could take the top prize. We'll ultimately need SAG and BAFTA to guide us toward the safest bet this year.

Best Director

Sean Baker, Anora
WINNER PREDICTION: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

Best Actor

WINNER PREDICTION: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

What was once considered a locked-down category has shaken up in recent weeks, with A Complete Unknown on an intense upswing before securing nominations in eight Academy categories. The Bob Dylan biopic ticks many traditional Academy boxes, too, seeing as it's a commercially appealing movie that follows the life and legacy of a real-life entertainment figure, played by one of the industry's brightest (and most bankable) young, male stars. Timothée Chalamet has stats on his side, as performances based on real industry people tend to have the upper hand, but Brody's status as a past winner — and an endlessly lauded force on the circuit so far — will be tough to beat. We're sticking with Brody for now, but don't be surprised if Chalamet's charming public persona hits the right high note with voters across the final voting stretch.

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
WINNER PREDICTION: Fernanda Torres, I'm Still Here

Few Oscar contenders have squandered their potential (in the middle of a campaign, mind you) as spectacularly as Emilia Pérez's history-making Best Actress nominee. In January, Gascón made headlines after becoming the first openly trans person to be nominated for any of the Academy's acting awards, but a subsequent, poorly worded interview in which she spoke about online harassment with regard to fellow nominee Fernanda Torres led to social media users unearthing past, offensive posts that many have labeled as Islamophobic and racist. Though Gascón has profusely defended herself (she offered her “most sincere apologies to all the people who may have felt offended" and said she's "neither racist nor anything that all these people have tried to make others believe," in a televised interview with CNN), the damage to her once-bright campaign was done.

Though Gascón was likely never in a position to win Best Actress in the first place, the fact that the chaos erupted over her comments about Torres' social media team is a key factor in the equation. Torres' Brazilian fans represent a vocal, powerful sector of social media and largely lobbied against Gascón even before the actress' past posts resurfaced; that same passion and pride for one of their own can also be traced across the Academy's Best Picture category, where Torres' film, I'm Still Here, scored high enough on the preferential ballot to slip into the category. Now, the same people defending Torres online are not the same people casting AMPAS ballots, but such commitment is a fiery passion they share with the international faction of the Academy's acting branch that boosted Torres toward a Best Actress nomination. Goodwill could be on her side enough to secure her a victory over presumed frontrunner Demi Moore (The Substance), whose comeback narrative has thus far worked very well in her favor, and still makes her an extremely viable option for voters.

At this stage, it could go either way, but if anything, Oscar season has taught us to go with the most unorthodox choice when forced to choose between logic or disruption.

Zoe Saldaña in 'Emilia Pérez'. 

PAGE 114 - WHY NOT PRODUCTIONS - PATHÉ FILMS - FRANCE 2 CINÉMA

Best Supporting Actor

Yura Borisov, Anora
WINNER PREDICTION: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Another seemingly safe category on the surface (Kieran Culkin has dominated the conversation for months, showing up at every precursor and winning at the Globes) actually has a potential surprise or two brewing underneath. Again, A Complete Unknown's surging success can't be discounted here, and Edward Norton playing real-life, beloved musician Pete Seeger in a popular, widely appealing film should automatically be treated as a potential spoiler to Culkin's reign. Similarly, Yura Borisov has coasted through the season alongside Culkin, notching notices with virtually every pre-Oscars voting body on the trail. It's a feat made even more impressive considering Borisov is a relative unknown to general audiences, so the strength of his performance in a universally loved film that has a lot more weight behind it (Anora is also competing in Best Picture, Best Actress, and Best Director) is one to watch for an upset, too.

Best Supporting Actress

Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
WINNER PREDICTION: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Following the Gascón scandal, you might've seen some pundits switching their predictions in favor of pop icon Ariana Grande's performance in Wicked, which is inarguably the performance with the most star-power (and the most widely seen) of this year's nominees. While it's natural to anticipate a bit of Zoe Saldaña's supporters jumping ship, it's important to remember that Saldaña didn't build momentum because of Gascón, and she won't lose it because of her, either. Saldaña distanced herself from her costar's comments at a recent Q&A, and her work in the movie stands on its own, with both accolades (she won the Golden Globe) and merit backing up her bid.

Best Adapted Screenplay

WINNER PREDICTION: James Mangold and Jay Cocks, A Complete Unknown
Peter Straughan, Conclave
Jacques Audiard (in collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius, and Nicolas Livecchi), Emilia Pérez
RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes, Nickel Boys
Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar; Story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, and John "Divine G" Whitfield, Sing Sing

Best Original Screenplay

WINNER PREDICTION: Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold, The Brutalist
Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, and Alex David, September 5
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

Best Animated Feature

Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
WINNER PREDICTION: The Wild Robot
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo in 'Wicked'. 

Giles Keyte/Universal Pictures

Best Documentary Feature

Black Box Diaries
WINNER PREDICTION: No Other Land
Porcelain War
Soundtrack to a Coup D'Etat
Sugarcane

Best International Feature

WINNER PREDICTION: I'm Still Here
The Girl With the Needle
Emilia Pérez
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Flow

Best Film Editing

Anora
WINNER PREDICTION: The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Wicked

Best Cinematography

WINNER PREDICTION: The Brutalist
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Maria
Nosferatu

Best Production Design

The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
WINNER PREDICTION: Wicked

Best Costume Design

A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Gladiator II
Nosferatu
WINNER PREDICTION: Wicked

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

A Different Man
Emilia Pérez
Nosferatu
WINNER PREDICTION: The Substance
Wicked

Best Original Song

WINNER PREDICTION: "El Mal," Emilia Pérez (Music by Clément Ducol and Camille; Lyric by Clément Ducol, Camille and Jacques Audiard)
"The Journey," The Six Triple Eight (Music and lyric by Diane Warren)
"Like a Bird," Sing Sing (Music and Lyric by Abraham Alexander and Adrian Quesada)
"Mi Camino," Emilia Pérez (Music and lyric by Camille and Clément Ducol)
"Never Too Late," Elton John: Never Too Late (Music and lyric by Elton John, Brandi Carlile, Andrew Watt, and Bernie Taupin)

Best Original Score

WINNER PREDICTION: The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
The Wild Robot

Best Sound

A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
WINNER PREDICTION: Wicked
The Wild Robot

Best Visual Effects

Alien: Romulus
Better Man
WINNER PREDICTION: Dune: Part Two
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Wicked

Timothée Chalamet and Austin Butler in 'Dune: Part Two'. 

Niko Tavernise/Warner Bros. Pictures

 

Best Live-Action Short

 

A Lien
Anuja
I'm Not a Robot
The Last Ranger
WINNER PREDICTION: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

Best Animated Short

WINNER PREDICTION: Beautiful Men
In the Shadow of the Cypress
Magic Candies
Wander to Wonder
Yuck!

Best Documentary Short

Death by Numbers
WINNER PREDICTION: I am Ready, Warden
Incident
Instruments of a Beating Heart
The Only Girl in the Orchestra